Two home sides with the cleaner profile against visitors who struggle to score on the road. Both matches look like narrow-to-moderate home wins rather than shootouts.
Hoffenheim against Schalke: Hoffenheim average far more shots and shots on target, and more expected goals, than Schalke, who have scored four goals in eight league games and been shut out in three of the last five. Schalke's striker Sylla is out and several midfielders are doubtful, which weakens their ability to hold the ball. Hoffenheim played on Thursday, so legs are a question, but Schalke rarely create enough to punish that. I expect Hoffenheim to take the territory and find one or two goals. That's why I'm siding with Hoffenheim to win.
Celtа Vigo against Levante: Celta defend better, conceding about one a game, while Levante have not won away in their last five and scored only three goals in those five trips. Celta's missing striker and centre-back have been out for weeks, so that is already in their results. Thursday's European game is the real cost, but Levante's away output is too thin to lean on that. That's why I'm siding with Celta Vigo to win.
