Brest can advance quickly through Ajorque and bring runners onto the second ball. Lyon can counter that with Tolisso's central movement and deliveries from wide areas. Brest's recent shot volume has produced real box chances, yet the decisive part is whether their support players arrive for another accurate effort. Lyon's away attack has often offered less repeat supply than its stronger home displays.
Ajorque's hold-up play puts Doumbia and the wide runners near Lyon's first clearance, while Tolisso and Tessmann can test Brest's rearranged central defence. Chardonnet and Le Guen remain out after missing Lorient; Tousart has already been used at centre-back, and Versini actually came on and assisted there. Lyon's Openda and Sulc missed Sociedad and remain reported absent, while Nuamah and Niakhaté are available again with their starting roles uncertain. Brest's longer recovery and repeatable second-ball chances give them a route to the winning finish, so I'm siding with Brest.
