Armenia against Cyprus looks like a cagey, low-event game. Armenia dominate the ball but turn it into little quality, and Cyprus are a reactive side that depend on one or two early chances. Italy against France is a clash of France's territorial control with an Italian back line that has been leaking chances.
Armenia created only around one expected goal or less in each of their league games, and in the 2-0 loss in Cyprus they had 16 shots and 67 percent of the ball but just five on target. Cyprus allowed under 0.8 expected goals in three of their last four. The first thirty minutes decided the earlier meeting, and the likeliest way this one gets going is the same early Cyprus chance. Cyprus have one doubtful midfielder and Armenia list no absences, so nothing here changes the picture much. That's why I'm expecting a tight, low-scoring game and backing the goals to stay down.
France average about 60 percent possession, 18 shots with over seven on target, and 1.9 expected goals over their last ten with stats. Italy concede around 1.6 expected goals per game and have let in five in four league games. The 1-1 on 2 Oct had Italy ahead on expected goals, so the draw is a real outcome, but France's shot quality on target was far better. Saliba and Mateta are only doubtful on the squad list, and Koundé is the cover. France's wide delivery and corners meet Italy's weakest unit. That's why I'm siding with France not to lose.
