Armenia should push wide early, while Cyprus can make the first useful shot from a recovery and a quick forward pass. The contest is whether Armenia's crosses find a central finisher before Cyprus's runners reach the space behind them. Italy and France have a different rhythm: France can recover high, and Italy can break that pressure with a direct right-side outlet. In both matches, the deciding contact may come after the first clearance rather than the first entry.
Cyprus have several live receivers in Edwards, Loizou and Pittas, with Kastanos supplying through midfield. Their back four held through the last match without Pileas. Armenia's Spertsyan played part of its last match but is now reported injured, taking away a major source of crosses and key passes; its younger central finishers have yet to show the same connection. Cyprus can use Armenia's push for a win to release its runners. That's why I'm siding with Cyprus.
France's Olise and Doué can combine inside, but Italy held France to a single goal in Paris and has its own early outlet through Kayode and Sebastiano Esposito. Barella's restart delivery found Calafiori against Turkey, and Pio Esposito supplied a later close finish. Kean is absent from Italy's earlier far-post route, while France also loses several attackers and a midfield receiver from its last match. I expect France to press and Italy to answer with a direct run or a restart contact. That's why I'm siding with Italy to hold its ground.
