Two top-of-the-table meetings where the state of the game decides more than the form tables. Ajax's long away winning run brings them into the setup that suits Twente best, with Ajax on the ball and Twente running. In Tokyo, a fully rested San-en side meets an Alvark team on its third game in five days, and Alvark's loaded weeks have had a clear pattern this season.
Twente v Ajax. Both coaches expect Ajax to take the initiative. That matters, because Twente have been at their best against good sides when the opponent had the ball, as in their win at AZ, and at their weakest when forced to break down a set block, as in the home loss to Utrecht. Ajax's midfield is reshuffled with Amrabat expected out, Baas moving forward and a new pairing behind him, and Weghorst and Propper on set pieces attack that area. Without Brandt, Ajax created very little against AZ. Ajax have conceded in every away game, and Twente's XI is close to full with Weidmann back. Arokodare's finishing and Ajax's full-back crosses are the counterweight. That's why I'm siding with Twente, with the draw covered.
Alvark v San-en. Alvark win at home by attacking the paint and living at the free-throw line, and San-en foul a lot. But in Alvark's three loaded spots this season (Ibaraki, Tainan and Sendai) they lost all three. The free throws dried up, the first and last quarters sagged, and their perimeter defence leaked threes. This game comes after a trip to Taiwan, a road game at Sendai and only one day off. San-en, unbeaten on the road in all but two of nine games, have had a week of rest, and their attack is exactly what tired legs struggle with: Terence Davis creating and drawing fouls, and steady three-point volume. San-en's games have usually been decided by a few points, so I expect a close finish. That's why I'm siding with San-en to win.
