Albania's first pass into midfield should shape this match. Finland can press that outlet and break into the space behind the wide defenders. The more telling question is which side can create another clean chance after the first goal or a blocked attack.
Asllani can find Manaj and Muçi around the box, with Hysaj and Pilios adding width and corners. Albania still reached the box repeatedly in the previous meeting after going down to ten, while Finland's two goals came from direct free kicks. Finland's later chase against Belarus also produced pressure without many clean final contacts.
Berisha is back in Albania's squad after his October suspension. Antman and Skyttä return for Finland after missing the opening group matches, giving Friis new wide and inside options, but that supply has yet to be established in this side. Albania can regain the next ball through Asllani and find Manaj or a substitute runner after a Finnish reply. That's why I'm siding with Albania to win.
