[2026 UEFA Nations League] Montenegro vs Latvia preview Kick-off: November 12, 19:45 UTC
Montenegro are likely to have more of the ball. The result will depend on what kind of chances they can create inside Latvia’s compact defence.
1. Match overview and team form
Montenegro lead the group with 10 points and a home win would put them close to securing top spot. Coach Mirko Vucinic said the plan was to control the game through possession while making sure the whole team was ready for Latvia’s counterattacks when they lost the ball (Montenegro Football Association, November 11). The missing piece so far has been the finishing. Against Armenia last time out, Montenegro had 64% possession and completed 527 passes, but their expected goals were just 0.54 and the match ended 0-0. Vucinic showed the players video of 30 missed chances (Montenegro Football Association, November 11).
Armenia defended deep away to Montenegro. Latvia are also likely to look for opportunities behind the defence, from crosses and set pieces, under coach Nicolato’s plan. That makes it difficult to expect Montenegro to repeat the 1.92 expected goals they produced away to Latvia in October. Latvia had 14 shots at home that day, and Montenegro also had more space to attack than they are likely to find now.
Montenegro have another attacking option compared with the Armenia match. Vucinic confirmed that the returning Sead Hakšabanović would start (Lob Sport, November 11). His ability to beat defenders one-on-one can create openings to feed Nikola Krstović and Milutin Osmajić. Stevan Jovetić has only taken part in some training sessions, so his availability is uncertain (Portal Analitika, November 11). If he plays, Montenegro will have another player between the two forwards who can pass and shoot. Adam Marušić is confirmed out, but he did not feature in any of the four matches that put Montenegro top of the group (Montenegro Football Association, November 11).
Latvia had 14 shots against Montenegro in October, but only two were on target and their expected goals were 0.9. They have managed just four shots on target across all four group matches. Jānis Ikaunieks has returned, and Nicolato said he plans to use him in a wide attacking role (Baltic Football News, November 11). Latvia have another player who can carry the ball down the flank, but they still need to turn those attacks into accurate finishes. The teams meet 37 days after their October 6 match, with Latvia travelling to Podgorica.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is between Montenegro’s attacking midfielders and Latvia’s central defence. As against Armenia, if the opposition pack the middle, keeping possession for long spells alone will not give Krstović good shooting chances. Hakšabanović needs to beat a defender and get the ball to him. Nicolato has also singled out Krstović as a player to watch. The more Latvia focus their defence on him, the more important it becomes for Montenegro’s players behind the forwards to shoot themselves or find another attacker with a pass.
The second battle comes immediately after Montenegro lose possession. If they lose the ball while their full-backs are pushed forward, Latvia can send it to Ikaunieks or Gutkovskis and attack the space behind them. Montenegro conceded in all three of their group-stage wins, and away in Riga they were 2-0 up before conceding late on. That is why Vucinic has stressed the need to guard against counterattacks. Latvia, though, have rarely put their shots on target even when they manage to get an attack to the shooting stage.
If the game is still level late on, both teams’ problems could come to the fore. Montenegro could not break down Armenia’s deep defence, while Latvia’s last four matches that were level at half-time have ended in three draws and one defeat. If Jovetić starts on the bench, his introduction could change the central attack. If Montenegro score first and Latvia push forward, more space could open up, as it did in Riga in October.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect Montenegro to score once in the second half and win, even if they fail to find a goal before the break. Hakšabanović’s start adds the individual dribbling that was missing against Armenia. Latvia can sit deep and run down the clock, but they lost away to Cyprus last time out after scoring first and then conceding around the 70th minute and again in stoppage time. Latvia’s counterattacks also have little backing as a source of goals, given their record of four shots on target in four group matches.
The market has priced in a Montenegro win, a large winning margin and plenty of goals, based on the group leaders’ home advantage and their October win in the head-to-head. We agree with the win call, but expect a closer scoreline. All three of Montenegro’s group-stage wins have come by a single goal, and they managed only 0.54 expected goals against Armenia’s deep defence. Hakšabanović gives them another way to attack, but a late first goal would leave less time to add another.
If Jovetić starts and links up with the two forwards through the middle, Montenegro could score earlier. His availability is uncertain, so we are putting more weight on Hakšabanović’s confirmed role and expect Montenegro to win by a narrow margin in the second half.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Montenegro win. Hakšabanović’s dribbling gives them a new attacking option, and Latvia have previously struggled to hold on from the middle of the second half onward. Handicap -1: Draw. Latvia are likely to try to hold out in the first half, delaying the opening goal and leaving little time for a second. Under 2.5 goals: Latvia’s counterattacks are unlikely to end in shots on target, while Montenegro are likely to score just once in the second half.
