[2026 UEFA Nations League] Turkey vs Belgium Match Preview Kick-off: November 12, 17:00 UTC
Turkey face Belgium again in their first match under a new manager. Rather than dwelling on the 0-3 defeat in their previous meeting, the focus is on who steps up to finish the chances Turkey create.
1. Match Overview and Current Form
Turkey's four consecutive Nations League defeats all came under Vincenzo Montella. According to Data Center, they scored just 2 goals from 6.69 expected goals across those four games, while conceding 11 goals against 6.53 expected goals against. In the away match against Belgium, they generated 23 shots and 1.33 expected goals, topping Belgium's 1.24 xG, but lost 0-3. The underlying chance creation remained functional, with the scoreline determined by finishing and defensive concessions.
New manager Sergen Yalçın announced he will start traditional striker Enes Ünal and adjust the team's tactical approach (Hürriyet, 11-11). Starting Ünal as the primary box finisher is logical, but the flank support supplying him is depleted. Kenan Yıldız and Aral Şimşir are out injured, while Kerem Aktürkoğlu and İrfan Can Kahveci were left off the squad. Zeki Çelik, who delivered the right-sided cross that set up the equaliser against Italy, is very unlikely to start and can play only 20 to 30 minutes (Fanatik, 11-11). Yalçın also noted that three or four players returning from injury will feature during the match (Hürriyet, 11-11). Maintaining that attacking intensity across the full 90 minutes remains an open question.
Belgium travel without Romelu Lukaku due to hip discomfort (Sporza, 11-11). Charles De Ketelaere is expected to start up front, with natural centre-forward Hugo Cuypers available as a second-half option (Voetbalbelgie, Voetbalkrant, 11-11). Without Lukaku, the attack relies more on Jérémy Doku advancing down the wing, Kevin De Bruyne's service, and second-line runners making box entries. Local reports conflict on whether Roméo Lavia, who recovers possession and plays forward passes from midfield, will feature. His status directly affects the fluidity of Belgium's initial progression. Both sides last played competitively on October 6 and arrived in Izmir the day before the match, leaving travel fatigue without meaningful impact on either side's performance.
2. Key Matchups
One key matchup pits Turkey's right side of defense against Belgium's left-sided attack. Çelik initiated Turkey's goal against Italy with a cross from the right, but he is unlikely to start, and Mert Müldür is not in the squad. If whoever fills that spot pushes forward to attack, Doku can exploit the space behind. Focusing heavily on containing Doku will restrict the service sent to Ünal from the right. With Yalçın stating that Turkey need all three points (Hürriyet, 11-11), how the right-back balances forward runs with recovery duties will shape both defense and attack.
Another matchup is Ünal competing inside the box against Belgium's central defenders. Turkey generated high shot volume in the reverse fixture without scoring. Starting Ünal gives Turkey a clear focal point for crosses and set pieces. Because service from the right is compromised, Turkey may channel their attacks down the left where Ferdi Kadıoğlu pushes forward. Belgium centre-back Nathan Ngoy faces a suspension for the upcoming Italy match if booked (La Libre Belgique, 11-07), and goalkeeper Senne Lammens has faced scrutiny over his composure following recent club-level mistakes (Sporza, 11-11). These factors alone do not guarantee concessions, but getting service to Ünal creates a different physical dynamic in the box compared to the first meeting.
When Turkey turn the ball over during an attack, De Bruyne's first pass and Doku's direct running become central. Belgium used Lavia's forward passing and wide runs behind the defense to score away against France (Maxifoot, 10-06). If Turkey push numbers up to support Ünal, Belgium can exploit the space behind their defense with minimal passes. Without Lukaku leading the line, finishing those transitions depends on De Ketelaere and trailing midfielders timing their box arrivals behind wide breakthroughs.
3. Final Assessment
We see Belgium holding a slight edge. Turkey have the personnel to improve their penalty-box finishing through Ünal, and Belgium allowed 6.25 expected goals across their last four matches (Data Center). However, pushing forward exposes Turkey's depleted right flank to Doku. In the second half, Belgium can introduce Cuypers alongside rested wingers, whereas Turkey face strict minute limits on several players returning from injury.
The market favours Belgium largely due to the previous 3-0 result and Turkey's four-match losing run. That scoreline alone does not point to a wide margin today. Turkey created more chances in that meeting, and Belgium now play without Lukaku. Backing Belgium rests on the flank matchups and bench depth rather than the past scoreline. If Turkey capitalize early on service from Kadıoğlu to create chances for Ünal, Belgium will have to chase the game against a compact block without Lukaku.
[Final Selections / Betman Markets] Full-time result: Away win (Belgium) — Doku and De Bruyne can consistently target Turkey's depleted right flank, with bench depth sustaining Belgium's advantage after the hour mark. Handicap +1: Draw — Even if Belgium win, Ünal and set pieces provide Turkey a viable route to a goal, while Belgium lack the box presence to pull away by multiple goals. Under/Over 3.5: Under — Reduced wide delivery limits Turkey's chances of scoring more than once, and Belgium rely on transition without a recognized focal point, keeping overall scoring down.
